Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
